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A boy tries to outrun a man fumigating for mosquitoes in an effort to combat dengue fever, on the streets of Lahore, Pakistan, September 20, 2011. |
Telephone Hotline in Pakistan Predicts Dengue Outbreaks
Predicting an outbreak of dengue fever could be just a phone call away. A telephone helpline is helping public health officials in Pakistan predict the incidence of the mosquito-borne disease. Pakistan is making some progress in controlling dengue. Researchers have created a computer process that uses helpline reports from the public. The information is used to help forecastthe number of cases. Public health officials then can take measures to limit the effects of dengue on a community. For example, public health workers can get rid of high populations of mosquitoes. Lakshmi Subramanian, a professor at New York University, said the computer model is extremely accurate, down to specific neighborhoods and blocks. He said, "The computer is actually giving you the exact range. And that is more powerful than, 'Oh, I think an outbreak is going to happen or an outbreak is not going to happen.'" He added that an outbreak can betraced to neighborhoods and blocks where they started. The helpline has been in operation for about five years. The Pakistani province of Punjab was hit by a severe outbreak of dengue in 2011. More than 21,000 people were infected and 350 people died. Hospitals in Punjab were unprepared and crowded with patients. Since then, researchers in the United States and Pakistan developed the helpline. Almost 300,000 people have called the service with questions about the symptoms of dengue. They also report areas where mosquitoes are living. Experts say the system is not costly. They say that in 2013 the number of dengue cases in the city of Lahore fell to 1,600 using information from the helpline and disease prevention efforts. An estimated 400,000 people are infected with dengue fever each year, and an estimated 2.5 billion people are at risk of contracting dengue. It affects people who live in hot and humid climates of the world, according to the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. The disease causes sudden high fever, severe headaches and agonizing joint and muscle pain. Parasite-infected mosquitoes spread the illness, for which there is no cure or vaccine. | A Pakistani mother holds her son suffering from dengue fever at a hospital in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, in 2015. (© AP Images) | Hotline response
So far, 300,000 people have called the hotline with questions about the symptoms of dengue, and cases have dropped dramatically in Lahore, researchers said. The cost-effective system does not require much effort to collect and analyze data, researchers said, and can apply to malaria, influenza and even polio, a disease that has been virtually eradicated worldwide but for a few remaining cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan. "So, to some extent, it's very generic and can be deployed in any other parts of the country and any other countries" said Nabeel Abdur Rehman, the study's leading author.
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